Saturday, August 2, 2008

Are you smart enough to time the market?


When the market is down, I often have my clients asking me- "should we get out of the market? should I put everything in cash and bonds and less in stocks?" As simple and as frustrating as an answer that it is, the simple solution is "No, stay the course".


I can't time the market- I have no idea when it is going to peak, and no idea when it is going to bottom. Sooo...if you have time on your side, you need to stay invested! The market goes up and down and to get the ups of the market, you have to stay in it to get the ups...if you wait until the economy is stable, the elections are over blah blah blah then guess what, you're going to miss the rebound.

You always here that the market will return between 8-10% over time, well the Dalbar Study showed that from 1985 to 2004 the average mutual fund investor gained 3.7% while the s&P500 returned 11.9%...why?? Because, investors were only investing in "hot performaning funds" when the market was up, and when it was down they sold- hence why market timing doesn't work. If you have good asset allocation in place, are dollar cost averaging and rebalancing your portfolio, you will be okay- trust me.



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